Breakouts
Stockscores.com Perspectives for the week ending July 25, 2009
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In this week's issue:
The breakout. In its simplest form, it occurs when a stock hits a new high, moving through a price ceiling that has held up for some amount of time. Stocks that are strong must eventually break out so it is understandable that a very basic trading strategy is to buy stocks that are making breakouts. However, I have found that trading with just this simple criterion is not a good way to make money. To use breakouts as an entry signal, you have to add other criteria.
Let's first make sure we understand what dynamic is in place when a stock breaks out. If a stock is hitting a price that is higher than it has seen for some time then the market is really saying that the fundamentals are better than they have been for some time. Investors are willing to pay higher prices because they believe that the company's business is worth more. So, breakouts are significant because they represent a change in the perception that investors have about the company's ability to make money in the future.
That is why I like considering breakouts; there is something significant fundamentally behind them. However, it is important that we find a way to differentiate between breakouts caused by emotion and those caused by information.
Better trading opportunities occur when investors are motivated to pay a higher price because of new information rather than emotion. Higher prices caused by emotional investors chasing a hot stock higher are likely to see a correction and actually represent a good short selling opportunity.
So, when considering breakouts, we need to have techniques that help us separate the emotional breakouts from the informational breakouts.
This is actually quite simple to do. When a market is emotional, there will tend to be price volatility. By that, I mean that price will be changing day by day. Typically, an emotional breakout to the upside will be preceded by an upward trend where investors are eagerly buying the stock. So, the first rule of breakouts is to not buy them when they are preceded by price volatility.
Instead, we want to focus on stocks that have been trading in narrow, normal trading ranges. If a stock is trading sideways and has a pretty boring price pattern then the breakout represents the beginning of something. New information has shocked the buyers in to paying more. Informational breakouts are best when they come from periods of sideways trading.
When assessing breakouts, we also need to determine if the breakout has real buyer power behind it. Moving a stock to higher prices requires buyers motivated by greed. If that is lacking, then the stock will sink lower as sellers take profit. So, breakouts to the upside must be accompanied by volume, for volume is the fuel of the buyers. Stocks have a hard time going up without volume, although they can fall lower without it.
Breakouts will have difficulty evolving in to upward trends if there are people who own the stock at higher prices. These people have been losing money on the stock and are likely frustrated with holding it. As a result, they are more likely to sell the stock when it gets back to what they paid for it. So, when analyzing a breakout, it is good to consider how long it has been since the stock has traded at this price. I find that breakouts are more reliable if they represent a move to at least a two year high.
Finally, we need to think about the mood of investors because, even though information can cause a breakout, a sustained trend needs investor optimism to keep it going. Therefore, it is important to look at the shape of the pattern in to the breakout so we can understand who is in control of the market. Rising bottoms indicate the buyers are in control, falling tops show the sellers are in control. Upside breakouts are best preceded by investor optimism as shown by rising bottoms.
To summarize, the best breakouts are those motivated by new information that justifies investors paying a higher price. Breakouts from sideways, low volatility trading with strong volume supporting the breakout, rising bottoms in to the breakout and up to prices that have not been seen for two years will have the best potential for an upward trend.
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If you check the charts of stocks that have done really well, their uptrends almost always start with abnormal volume. Strong trends are driven by buyer excitement which is signaled by an abnormal increase in volume.
Consider the chart of WSTL. This stock has done extraordinarily well and it all started with an abnormal spike in volume on April 19th. CISG is another example, its volume spiked higher late in May when the upward trend was just beginning.
The Stockscores Market Scan tool can filter the market for stocks trading abnormal volume. I use this filter in combination with the number of trades filter to find stocks that are trading abnormal volume with at least 500 trades a day.
I inspect the charts that the Market Scan identifies to find stocks that are just starting a trend. I want to see the abnormal volume happen out of a period of boring, sideways trading. If the stock has already been trending higher for a while, I leave it.
This week, I ran this scan and found a few stocks that I think are worth considering. I would like to see a confirming entry signal on the intraday 15 minute chart as these stock may make a pull back before they are going higher.
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1. SCSS
SCSS has been pretty sleepy for almost three months but shot higher on Friday with very strong volume. Something has investors excited, it needs to hold above support at $0.85.
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2. MNTX
MNTX showed much higher volume on Friday as it gained 43%, it looks like the stock is in play. Since it made such a big gain on Friday I suggest watching the intraday, 15 minute chart for a confirming signal to enter as it could pull back before it goes higher. Support at $0.80.
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3. CGA
CGA has a very good looking chart that shows a breakout from sideways trading with strong volume support. Support at $7.25.
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References
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Disclaimer
This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make
investment decisions. Information in Stockscores Perspectives is often
opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No
stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information
contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or
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in the stocks discussed above and may trade in the stocks mentioned. Don't
consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligence.
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